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Beginner mistakes Part 2: The problem with implied odds
In Part 1 of this series I took a look at one problem that afflicts many new players; seeing monsters under the bed -or in non-poker terms; narrowing your opponent’s hand-range down too far and constantly fearing you are up against the nuts. In this column I will look at another problem that afflicts beginners at the poker tables; overvaluing your implied odds.
One of the most misapplied concepts in poker is that of implied pot odds. Implied odds give new players -and many poor players– the opportunity to play a lot of garbage hands because they can use the simple excuse of “well, I was getting good implied odds!”
The funny thing about implied odds is that nobody ever underestimates their implied odds, they always overvalue them!
Implied odds are when you are calling a bet without the proper “effective” odds -the odds you are receiving from the pot-with the expectation of winning money on future betting rounds when you do hit your hand; thereby oveing the negative odds you are currently receiving. If this sounds like it involves a lot of speculation and guesswork it’s because it does!
Players who overvalue their implied odds tend to think in terms of generalities, when implied odds are very player specific. For instance just because you and every other player at the table have 500BB stacks doesn’t mean you should play virtually any two cards because you have the possibility to stack your opponent if you hit a miracle flop. This would mean that your opponent would also have to hit the flop so hard that they simply cannot fold, and also assumes there will be a lot of raising and re-raising throughout the hand in order to get a 500BB stack all-in at some point.
One classic example of overvaluing your implied is when you have the nut-flush-draw in PLO. In these cases your implied odds are practically zero, unless you are against a calling station or perhaps a player willing to call a bet on the turn with top-set. However, most PLO players simply cannot fold the bare-nut-flush-draw in PLO and will call based on implied odds if they hit, not realizing how much they are overvaluing their hand.
The truth of the matter is that to accurately use implied odds you have to have a very good read on your opponent’s tendencies since some players are capable of folding Top Pair Top Kicker when you are set-mining, while other players will not only just call, they’ll move all-in over the top of your raise. The notion that you can set-mine with a deep-stack is not always true; it almost entirely depends on who is in the pot with you.
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